A research by Standard Chartered mentions that India is likely to become a larger economy than the US by the year 2030.The report also forecasts that China is likely to overtake the rest of the countries to come out on top, while Indonesia will be amongst the top five. The US is predicted to be dislodged to the third spot. The top five countries are predicted to be China, India, US, Indonesia and Turkey.
Standard Chartered Plc economists, led by David Mann wrote in a note: “Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies.”
They also predicted that seven out of the top ten countries are likely to be from the current emerging markets based on purchasing power parity (PPP), exchange rates and nominal GDP.
The economists believe that India will likely see the most movement with its trend growth accelerating by 7.8% by 2020. They believe this is likely to happen because of measures like GST and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. China’s growth will moderate to 5% by 2030, the report added.
The report also predicts that a majority of the world’s population will enter the middle-class income group in 2020. The Standard Chartered report further forecasts that the emerging markets, especially in Asia, will increasingly drive global growth. The combined US, Japan and euro-area GDP which has fallen to 46% since its 51% in 2010 is predicted to fall to 40% in 2030.